A farewell to (some) arms

Good Tuesday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
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CASE FOR THE DEFENSE: John Healey hits the airwaves this morning — and he *really is* playing the role of secretary of state for defense. Healey has been dispatched by Downing Street to counter criticism of the U.K. government’s decision to block some arms exports to Israel — from those who think it’s gone too far, from those who think it’s not gone far enough … and from the Israeli government itself, which is (predictably) incandescent over the limited suspension of exporting components being used in Gaza.
Best laid plans: David Lammy’s carefully calibrated announcement on Monday (“more in sorrow than in anger”) makes the front pages of the Times, the Telegraph, the i and the Guardian this morning. As you probably heard, the U.K. foreign secretary blocked 30 out of 350 export licenses to Israel over concerns the weapons could be used in violation of international humanitarian law — but he held back from imposing a full-on arms embargo. 
Diffusing the situation: After the level of anger became clear last night, Healey was teed up for the morning broadcast round. He has the 8.10 a.m. slot on the Today program still to come.
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Good luck with that: Diplomatic efforts to explain the decision to Israel were, of course, well underway before Lammy’s statement to the Commons on Monday afternoon. Playbook hears they included a phone call between Healey and his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, whom he visited in Tel Aviv earlier this month. 
But you can only do so much: Gallant was still enraged by the decision. He fired off a statement on X saying he was “deeply disheartened” by the action, which he said comes at a time when Israel is fighting an “unprovoked” war on “seven different fronts,” and while the nation mourns the death of six hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.
Then there’s this: Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz lamented a “series of recent decisions” since Keir Starmer’s Labour Party took power, citing also the restoration of funding to the UNRWA agency for Palestinian refugees and the dropping of the opposition to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Katz said the arms move “sends a very problematic message” to Hamas and Iran.
What a day for it: The restriction was announced on what was already a rotten day for Netanyahu as he faced strikes and widespread unrest. Last night he begged for “forgiveness” from Israelis as vast street protests over his failure to bring home the hostages snatched by Hamas spilled over into a second night. The Times of Israel was reporting violence being used against protesters, including against one of its own reporters who was grabbed by the throat by a police officer.
Back in the U.K.: The government published its policy paper on the decision on Monday evening, offering more detail on the conclusion that Israel was failing on humanitarian aid and the treatment of detainees. The suspension applies to components for military aircraft, helicopters and drones — but crucially, for pro-Palestinian groups, does not cover all components for F-35 jets. Your Playbook author had more detail in earlier coverage of the announcement here.
Labour pains: Highlighting just how thorny this subject remains for Keir Starmer’s party, the Labour Muslim Network demanded that ministers go further and ban all arms exports to Israel to “end its complicity in war crimes.” On the other side, the Labour Friends of Israel group said it’s “deeply concerned” by the message the decision sends to Iran, suggesting the restrictions could embolden Israel’s foes and lead to “greater escalation.” Lammy may have tried to strike a conciliatory tone that would feel like fair action to both sides. So far he’s pleased no one — at least when it comes to the hyper-politically engaged.
Where’s public opinion? It’s worth noting that Brits pretty consistently support ending arms sales to Israel. JL Partners research shared with Playbook PM had 44 percent backing such a move, compared to 27 percent opposing. A YouGov survey at the end of July had it at 55 percent for, to 13 percent opposed.
Outbreak of unity: The bitterly divided Tory party came together to criticize the government on this one. Leadership hopeful Robert Jenrick said it was “shameful gesture politics to appease the hard left,” while Shadow Foreign Secretary Andrew Mitchell reckoned it has “all the appearance of something designed to satisfy Labour’s backbenches, while at the same time not offending Israel, an ally in the Middle East. I fear it will fail on both counts.”
What next: British officials are alive to the fact that the announcement came on the U.S.’s Labor Day, when so many American politicians’ phones are on silent mode. But they could start pinging into action when the East Coast wakes up. Kamala Harris has recently echoed President Joe Biden in expressing “unequivocal” support for arming Israel after becoming the Democratic nominee — that’s clearly not the U.K. stance now. ITV’s Robert Peston was hearing from figures in Washington that the White House feels let down by Starmer’s move, with one telling him: “They assured us they wouldn’t do this.” So look out for comments Stateside this afternoon.
It all comes together: As Israel warned of an emboldened Iran, Bloomberg’s Alex Wickham reported on European officials expecting Tehran to begin delivering ballistic missiles to Russia imminently, in what would mark a worrying development in the invasion of Ukraine. 
A VISIT FROM KYIV: Healey is hosting his Ukrainian counterpart Rustem Umerov for bilateral talks this morning on accelerating U.K. military support for Kyiv’s resistance. The defense secretary can expect to be pushed on how Ukraine can win permission to use long-range Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets in Russia, with U.S. and French approval needed as well as Britain’s. 
What Labour wants to talk about: The MoD was confirming hitting the “milestone” of eight countries contributing more than £1 billion to the U.K.-led International Fund for Ukraine, and that a £300 million contract to supply artillery shells has been signed and will start to deliver by the end of the year. 
No rest for the wicked: Between the broadcast round and the bilateral, Healey will manage to squeeze in attending Starmer’s first Cabinet meeting since before the summer recess. With the arms fallout and continued pressure over winter fuel payments in the run-up to the budget, there’ll be plenty on the agenda.
THE TABLES HAVE TURNED: Rachel Reeves will head from the Downing Street meeting to the Commons to take part in her first Treasury questions as chancellor. Now it’ll be Jeremy Hunt facing the frustrating task of trying to find out what on earth’s coming down the tracks ahead of the October budget. The shadow chancellor will likely want to grill Reeves on her gloomy assessment of the economy, tax hikes and whether she’s going to ease the pain for the millions of pensioners she’s axing the winter fuel allowance for. The Commons clash kicks off at 11.30 a.m.
The Temple of Doom: Reeves may well find herself having to answer the contentious claim by Commons Leader Lucy Powell that there could have been a “run on the pound” if the government didn’t make spending cuts when unveiling the £22 billion “black hole.” The FT has done a whip-round of economists to hear a level of skepticism over the “slightly over-dramatic” and “silly” claim — read the write-up here.
DON’T PANIC! Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds are seeking to quell business chiefs’ concerns over their workers’ rights package by giving bosses an update on what to expect over yet another breakfast meeting. Rayner was assuring the plans would be “win-win” by also boosting productivity. John Lewis chief Nish Kankiwala, Sainsbury’s boss Simon Roberts, McDonald’s U.K. & Ireland CEO Alistair Macrow and BT CEO Allison Kirkby are all down to attend. The Times has more.
ACTUAL BIG LEGISLATION: There will be a properly big moment in the Commons this afternoon when Labour’s legislation to gradually bring trains back into public ownership passes its remaining Commons stages. The Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill is being whisked through today ahead of further scrutiny in the Lords.
Maybe it’ll be a model train set? Transport Secretary Louise Haigh promises that state-run rails will “eliminate years of waste and fragmentation” and lead to more reliable services. But her Tory shadow Helen Whately was accusing the government of “rushing these huge changes” through without proper scrutiny and treating Britain’s rails “like a toy train set.” Whately’s on the morning round for the Conservatives to hype up their concerns.
SEEING GREEN: The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has just dropped the results of the latest Contracts for Difference (CfD) allocation round — and all eyes will be on offshore wind. Labour has hiked the overhaul funding pot for all technologies to £1.5 billion after last year’s funding round was a damp squib. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband will be hoping to announce backing for several gigawatts worth of clean energy projects — but there will still be a lot of ground to make up under the pledge for clean power by 2030.
IT’S ANOTHER CRACKDOWN: Ministers are pledging action to tackle the rising blight of “snatch thefts,” with the Home Office announcing a summit with tech companies and mobile phone manufacturers to look at how innovations could crack the illegal market. This could involve greater use of features such as “kill switches” to disable smartphones after they’re nicked.
WHAT LABOUR DOESN’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT: MP and the Commons’ biggest landlord Jas Athwal is facing more pressure after a BBC investigation found black mold and ant infestations blighting his tenants. The London Renters’ Union is calling on the Ilford South MP to stand down over what the campaigners called “housing law violations.” Starmer said on Monday that the case is “not good enough,” but it doesn’t seem to be going away just yet. The BBC has the story.
Doing a better job? After Playbook revealed former Starmer aide Luke Sullivan was definitely not taking on a role in government, we hear his next move is now confirmed. The long-term Labour adviser will start work later this month at the Headland consultancy.
BATTLE STATIONS: Conservative MPs will finally get to see all six of their wannabe leaders face off in a committee corridor showdown. The hustings from 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. will take place behind closed doors, but hacks loitering outside will no doubt be eavesdropping for any yellow card offenses and to pick up on more infighting over whether to quit the European Convention on Human Rights. It’ll be a big moment for the contenders to win support before Wednesday’s first vote and elimination. 
But first: Acting Leader of the Opposition Rishi Sunak will hold what is only his second shadow Cabinet meeting — the first since his wannabe replacement Kemi Badenoch reportedly “ripped into” the former prime minister. The back-to-school meeting will take place in parliament at 10 a.m. 
Next up: Tom Tugendhat has his campaign launch … his official one, not to be mistaken with the speech on public services or the other on the far-right riots. This time, it’s for real. 
So sorry: The shadow security minister will issue an apology for the infighting and factionalism of the Tory party in recent years. “Politics matters to people’s lives. That’s why I was so angry at the recent games,” he’s expected to say. The speech, followed by a Q&A, will kick off in a Westminster venue at 10.30 a.m.
SCOOP — THE NEXT TORY KINGMAKER? Hedge fund tycoon Paul Marshall is set to be declared the new owner of the Spectator in the next week or so, two people with knowledge of the process tell Playbook. The Unherd founder and GB News investor — who has been in exclusive talks for the Tory bible for about a month — is likely to complete his buyout late this week, one of those people tells my colleague Dan Bloom. Though they add it could slip into next week as legal niceties are being tied up — and there’s a tiny chance it could still hit the wall.
The million-dollar question … is how much moolah Marshall, whose ownership would allow him to compete with former rival bidder Rupert Murdoch for influence on the right, will hand Abu Dhabi-backed Redbird IMI for the pleasure. Dan is told it is not more than £100 million.
Meanwhile: The sale of the Telegraph — also by Redbird, whose efforts to buy it out were thwarted by the last government — is at an earlier stage but still ticking along. Press Gazette had a list of bidders which included Marshall last month.
Hedging his bets: Observers will be interested to find out how Marshall’s influential right-wing entities will be kept separate. The tycoon — whose mega-hedge fund Marshall Wace is a rather more conventional City outfit — is pursuing the buyout through Old Queen Street Ventures, a firm co-directed by Unherd CEO Freddie Sayers. One person tells Dan that Marshall is “bored” and likes to have a “new toy” — but also that he has a genuinely Murdoch-style passion for journalism. Tory leadership contenders, watch this space.
GRENFELL: It’s a huge day for families of the 72 people killed in the Grenfell Tower fire and those who survived, as they get to see the findings of the final report into the 2017 disaster. Inquiry Chair Martin Moore-Bick will meet them in private today before they get to read the report ahead of publication on Wednesday. The “core participants” have signed confidentiality agreements, but it’s not impossible details will start to trickle out. 
GOD vs PFI: Former Cabinet Secretary Gus O’Donnell has warned Labour against using private finance initiatives to shimmy government spending off the books, telling the i’s Ben Gartside it’d be a “crazy” move.
BENEFITS IN FOCUS: As Labour comes under pressure over the two-child benefit cap and winter fuel allowance, a Trussell Trust report lays bare further welfare woes. New stats show that 48 percent of people who receive Universal Credit ran out of food in the last month, and 68 percent of working households who get the benefit have gone without essentials in the last six months. 
REPORT CARD: A review of school inspector Ofsted found 61 percent of education providers felt inspection placed “undue pressure” on their workload. The body has announced fresh reforms, with head teachers to be notified of upcoming inspections on Mondays, which will take place over the following two days. Previously, inspection notifications could have been given on a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. The Guardian has a write-up.
SW1 EVENTS: The Conservatives in Communications hosts summer drinks at 6.30 p.m. (invite only) … the Centre for Social Justice launches its “A United Nation” report with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham and former Conservative Leader Iain Duncan Smith at 1.30 p.m. (invite only) … Nature 2030 and Ecotricity host the 2024 Political Purpose Awards with London Mayor Sadiq Khan at 6 p.m. (details here). The Holocaust Educational Trust hosts a drop-in session in Portcullis House Room R from 3.15pm for new MPs to meet a Holocaust survivor, Eve Kugler, and learn about the Trust’s work.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: Policy Exchange says previous food security initiatives have focused too narrowly on agriculture and attention to the “whole food ecosystem” is “essential” …  CSJ’s Social Justice Commission says £6 billion of government spending should be switched from Whitehall to local government … Friends of the Earth has found 27.5 percent of English neighborhoods breach multiple pollution thresholds.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 p.m. with Treasury questions … then it’s the remaining stages of the Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill. Lib Dem MP Wendy Chamberlain has the adjournment debate on the potential merits of a cross-government strategy on unpaid carers. 
WESTMINSTER HALL: Sits from 9.30 a.m. with debates on health care provisions in the East of England (led by Labour MP Clive Lewis), Team GB’s performance in the Paralympics (Labour’s Tonia Antoniazzi), and the potential merits of an international special tribunal on crimes of aggression in Ukraine (Lib Dem MP Richard Foord). 
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with the introduction of Lib Dem peer Caroline Pidgeon and Labour peer Barbara Keeley … then it’s oral questions on the take-up of the NHS breast cancer screening program, aid and development funds to groups in Bangladesh, and an extended smoking ban … finishing with a debate on the first Covid-19 inquiry report (led by Labour peer Gillian Merron).
LAST NIGHT IN PITTSBURGH: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris teamed up in the battleground state of Pennsylvania for their first on-stage campaign event together since Biden handed over the baton. The president walked out to chants of his name, stopping to kiss the forehead of a confused-looking child. His Labor Day speech unsurprisingly focused on unions and a laundry list of moves he described as having helped workers.
Over to Kamala: She too did the “I’ve been great for unions” dance, then cited reasons her room full of cheering, placard-holding supporters should not vote for Donald Trump. The vice president then announced her opposition to the sale of U.S. Steel to Japanese firm Nippon Steel. She ended her speech by describing her campaign as the “underdogs” who will face a “tight race until the very end,” and urged those watching not to pay “too much attention to those polls.” Easy to say when they’re in your favor. 
SUCCESSION, BRUSSELS STYLE: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is piling pressure on EU countries to nominate women for the next College of Commissioners as she seeks to stave off the potential humiliation of presenting a male-dominated team, my colleagues Nicholas Vinocur and Barbara Moens report.
(DON’T) COME FLY WITH ME: The U.S. Department of Justice has seized a Dassault Falcon 900EX plane owned by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, saying it was purchased illegally in the U.S. for $13 million and then smuggled out of the country, eventually ending up in the Dominican Republic.
X IS X-ED: The Brazilian Supreme Court upheld a decision to ban X nationwide because it had refused to name a local legal representative as required by Brazilian law. According to the court’s website, Elon Musk’s social media platform will stay suspended until it complies with the law and pays outstanding fines currently exceeding $3 million.
PUTIN STILL A FREE MAN: Russian President Vladimir Putin, facing an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, arrived in Mongolia for a state visit on Monday. As a member of the ICC, Mongolia is supposed to act upon the court’s warrants, and will likely face prosecution if it doesn’t, Institute for Legal Studies senior fellow Tamás Hoffmann told POLITICO.
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Defence Secretary John Healey broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … GMB (7.15 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Today (8.10 a.m.) … Sky breakfast (8.30 a.m.).
Shadow Transport Secretary Helen Whately broadcast round: Times Radio (7.35 a.m.) … Talk (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … Today (8.30 a.m.) … LBC News (8.50 a.m.) … GB News (9.20 a.m.).
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former IDF Deputy Commander of Gaza Division Amir Avivi (7.05 a.m.) … Campaign Against Arms Trade Advocacy Manager Katie Fallon (7.10 a.m.) … Federation of Small Businesses Chief of External Affairs Craig Beaumont (7.20 a.m.).
Also on Good Morning Britain: Ofsted Chief Inspector Martyn Oliver and sister of Ruth Perry, Julia Waters (8.30 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem Fleur Hassan-Nahoum (8.05 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Conservative MP Tobias Ellwood (7.15 a.m.) … political biographer Anthony Seldon (8.30 a.m.) … Liberal Democrat MP Steve Darling (9.20 a.m.) … Fleur Hassan-Nahoum (9.30 a.m.). 
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP Helena Dollimore … Shadow Minister for Veterans Affairs Andrew Bowie … journalist and author Anne Applebaum … ConservativeHome creator Tim Montgomery.
POLITICO UK: As West slaps tariffs on Chinese cars, Britain ducks the fight.
Daily Express: Brutally honest! ‘Tories need to stop acting like Labour.’
Daily Mail: Now Labour are ‘running scared’ over winter fuel backlash.
Daily Mirror: Keir vs Oasis.
Daily Star: World’s a bit too dodgy to go driving.
Financial Times: UK cites possible law breaches in halting some arms exports to Israel.
i: UK restricts sale of weapons to Israel due to ‘clear risk’ of breaking international law.
Metro: Missing Jack parents’ ransom hoax ordeal.
The Daily Telegraph: Petrol cars rationed to meet eco targets.
The Guardian: UK breaks with US to suspend 30 arms export licences to Israel.
The Independent: Sorry we let them kill you. I promise in your memory we will return them all. 
The Times: Labour puts limits on arms deals with Israel.
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Drizzly, cloudy, and muggy. Happy September! High 23, low 15.
SPOTTED: At the Labour YIMBY reception in parliament’s Churchill room, including a speaker from property management firm GetLiving … Work and Pensions Minister Andrew Western … Labour MPs Emily Thornberry, Stella Creasy, Chris Curtis, Yuan Yang, James Asser, Tom Rutland, Kanishka Narayan, Mike Reader, Uma Kumaran, Sonia Kumar, Gurinder Josan, Deirdre Costigan, Sean Woodcock, Johanna Baxter, Dawn Butler, Jim Dickson and Ruth Cadbury, who was working the room lobbying for transport committee chair … Labour Together’s Charles White, Can Vargas and Jack Shaw … NEC’s Abdi Duale … JLM chief Mike Katz … Labour YIMBY Chair Marc Harris … Sodali & Co’s Simon Petar … Airbus’ Tom Williams … Hacks Josiah Mortimer, Jonn Elledge, Lee Harpin and Tom Scotson.Also spotted … at the Conservative Environment Network’s reception at the Old Queen Street Café where former Energy Minister Graham Stuart and Octopus Energy CEO Greg Jackson gave speeches: Shadow Local Government Minister David Simmonds … Tory peer David Maclean … former Tory MPs Mark Jenkinson and Charles Hendry … Tory parliamentary staffer Cameron Smith  … the BBC’s Chris Mason and Helen Catt … Policy Exchange Senior Fellow and former Tory adviser Andrew Gilligan … Flint Global’s Joshua Buckland … Green Alliance’s Shaun Spiers … Conservative Environment Network’s Sam Hall, Max Anderson, James Fisk, Isabel Goodwin, Kitty Thompson, Caitie Gillett, Fin McCarron, Bert Evans-Bevan and Elinor Bale … Hacks Helen Catt, Helena Horton, Steph Spyro and Zoë Crowther.
RUNNING SHOES ON: New Labour MP Chris Ward is running the Brighton half-marathon in aid of Sussex Beacon, which provides specialist care and support for people living with HIV.
PAW-LIMENTARIAN: Lib Dem MP Steve Darling’s guide dog Jennie has an official X account. Which raises the question of who is behind an impersonation account with 18k followers. Turns out dogs can get catfished too. 
NEW GIGS: Jasper Ostle has joined ASI as engagement and operations manager, replacing Mimi Yates, who is off to do a journalism masters at City.
COUNCILOR INFLUX: As MPs’ offices get filled out, many a councillor has been joining staffers’ ranks, including Labour’s Harry McKenzie, who joined Tony Vaughan’s office … Lib Dem Jon Olson who moved into John Milne’s office … and Labour’s David McGregor is now on team Chris Ward in parliament, where he was relieved to learn Diet Irn Bru is sold. 
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Andrew McDonald.
WRITING PLAYBOOK WEDNESDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Lords Deputy Speaker Euan Geddes … Scottish Labour MSP Daniel Johnson … former Italian PM Mario Draghi … LBC presenter Rachel Johnson … former Lib Dem spinner David Green … former Schools Minister Nick Gibb … former North East Hampshire MP Ranil Jayawardena … former Hendon MP Matthew Offord.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Jack Blanchard and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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